LUTHERAN QUILTERS – Members of the Quilts for Comfort Group stand between pews draped with some of the 205 quilts they made, in the Sitka Lutheran Church Tuesday. The group made the quilts for five local non-profits and one in Anchorage. The remaining quilts are sent to Lutheran World Relief which  distributes them to places around the world in need, such as Ukraine, as part of Personal Care Kits. Pictured are, from left, Helen Cunningham, Kathleen Brandt,Vicki Swanson, Paulla Hardy, Kim Hunter, Linda Swanson and Sue Fleming.  (Sentinel Photo by James Poulson)

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Daily Sitka Sentinel

Next Step: Landslide Warning System for Sitka

By BRIELLE SCHAEFFER

Sentinel Staff Writer

A scientific landslide warning system is a vital need in Sitka, but more data and community engagement is needed to create one, scientists say.

 

Seattle-based geologist and landslide consultant Bill LaPrade, speaks at a meeting Friday at Centennial Hall. (Sentinel Photo by James Poulson)

The Sitka Sound Science Center hosted a “landslide early warning workshop” last week to come up with some recommendations for Sitka officials in creating and implementing something to warn residents of potential dangers.

“The challenge in this topic is that landslides are low-frequency, high-impact events and that they occur rapidly,” said SSSC Executive Director Lisa Busch at a wrap-up presentation to city officials at Centennial Hall Friday. “Our focus is on protecting human life.”

Representatives from the U.S. Forest Service, U.S. Geological Survey, National Park Service, National Weather Service, and landslide consultants from Seattle, among others, were in town last week to go over current data and what other information is needed to create a successful warning program. They discussed warning systems that are used in other states and hazard mapping that has been done in Sitka. They also went on road and waterside tours to inspect recent landslide areas in the Sitka road system.

At the end of their three-day workshop Friday, the group gave a public presentation, attended by city staff and elected officials, represented by Deputy Mayor Bob Petrzuski, on their findings and a prioritized listing of recommendations for next steps. 

Busch said she learned from the experts at the workshop that warning systems are largely about community engagement and response, which is the challenge now faced by the City and Borough of Sitka,

“There’s a big social science component to creating a system like this,” she said. “The other part is the physical science side that is what this group concerned itself with.”

Sitka is not alone in wanting some forecasting tools for these events. Seattle and San Bernardino, Calif., already have programs in place to detect potential disasters, said Rex Baum of the U.S. Geological Survey.

“There are a lot of challenges trying to predict landslides even when they are highly correlated with rainfall,” he said in a workshop presentation last Wednesday. “We developed various tools trying to anticipate when landslides might be likely. Some deadly landslides have not necessarily been on days that it was raining hard.”

The USGS looked at things like cumulative precipitation, intensity and wetness as the basis of landslide warnings in the Seattle area, he said. The agency has an informal collaboration with the National Weather Service to issue special weather statements if heavy rainfall is forecast. 

Joel Curtis, warning coordination meteorologist with the National Weather Service in Juneau, said he is working on some precipitation thresholds for Sitka.

“It’s really good common sense to look at the rainfall rate – in other words how fast is the rain coming down? Are we having a big event?” he said. “The second consideration is the ground saturation. How soaked is the ground? What we would like to do is establish a threshold, and we’re pretty close to doing it, on the known events that we have.”

There’s still a “broad area of uncertainty” in establishing a threshold, he added.

A forecast system like this would be more similar to ones for avalanches than for tsunamis, said Jacqueline Foss, a U.S. Forest Service soil scientist.

“We all talked about the gold standard would be we would know where these landslides begin, how big they are and we would know who they affect, and know that with enough time to be able to evacuate the affected parties,” she said. “The state of this science isn’t such that we can do that right now, plus the landslides that we have here are rapid.”

One way to get more data is to install a weather station in the alpine, said Gabriel Wolken of the Alaska Division of Geological & Geophysical Surveys.

“What will improve accuracy? Data,” he said. “We have to know what the rain is doing high up. We have no information up there. All information is at sea level and we need to improve on that.”

Wolken also suggested improving the geological understanding within the hazard zones, measuring stream flows and creating numerical modeling.

He said the DGGS has equipment for a weather station that it is willing to donate for installation in Sitka.

The working group identified siting, permitting and installing that equipment as its No. 1 priority, said geologist Bill LaPrade, representing the Seattle consulting firm Shannon & Wilson, Inc. His organization created a hazard map of the Kramer Avenue area after the Aug. 18, 2015, landslide that took three lives and caused major property damage. 

“It’s really essential we get going on it and DGGS has an instrument in Fairbanks that they are ready to deploy,” he said. 

The donated weather station would save Sitka some $20,000 to $30,000 in equipment costs, said Tori O’Connell, a staff member of the SSSC who is encouraging city officials to take advantage of the offer.

The landslide working group also suggests improving the scientific data available with hydrological modeling to link landslides to river runoff, installing stream gauges and gathering anecdotal information from the community, LaPrade said. 

Maegan Bosak, the city community affairs director, said she’d like to know how a landslide warning system would work. The working group members said it would probably end up being an advisory issued by the National Weather Service based on some established thresholds, with city officials then using that information to issue alerts with maps, advisories and warnings. 

Sitka Fire Department Chief Dave Miller was interested in the recommendations but also had some concerns. 

“My goal in life is to make sure no one gets hurt,” he said. “Evacuating people could be a hazard, too. I’ll be happy as a lark when everything is set up. I still have today to think about and tomorrow to think about.”

He said he’s going to work on educating the public to be prepared for emergencies of all kinds, including landslides.

Armed with more scientific information, the Assembly now will need to craft public policy for a landslide early warning system, Potrzuski said after the meeting.

“The social science part is going to be up to public officials,” he said. “I think there will be very robust debate. There are lots of folks in town who are concerned about landslide mapping, and that’s reflected by the Assembly as well. Now that we have some science we have to come up with public policy, and that’s going to be fascinating ... and of the utmost importance.”

 

The state is working on a community-wide map for the potential landslide risk in Sitka, which will be available next year.

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20 YEARS AGO

March 2004

Advertisement: Tea-Licious Tea House & Bakery 315 Lincoln Street Grand Opening! Freshly Baked Scones, Cakes & Pastries Innovative Salads, Soups & Sandwiches Harney & Sons Tea. Lunch * Afternoon Tea * Supper.

50 YEARS AGO

March 1974

Photo caption: National Republican Chairman George Bush takes a drink of water offered by Jan Craddick, Sitka delegate, during the Republican convention held here. Mrs. Craddick explained to Bush that the water was from Indian River, which means, according to local legend, that he will return.

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